Erratum to: Winter storm- and summer thunderstorm-related loss events with regard to climate change in Germany     

Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe  Peter C. Werner  Hermann Österle  Tobias Pardowitz  Olaf Burghoff 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,114(3-4):729-729

  相似文献   

Alpine snow cover in a changing climate: a regional climate model perspective     

Christian Steger  Sven Kotlarski  Tobias Jonas  Christoph Schär 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(3-4):735-754

An analysis is presented of an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) experiments from the ENSEMBLES project in terms of mean winter snow water equivalent (SWE), the seasonal evolution of snow cover, and the duration of the continuous snow cover season in the European Alps. Two sets of simulations are considered, one driven by GCMs assuming the SRES A1B greenhouse gas scenario for the period 1951–2099, and the other by the ERA-40 reanalysis for the recent past. The simulated SWE for Switzerland for the winters 1971–2000 is validated against an observational data set derived from daily snow depth measurements. Model validation shows that the RCMs are capable of simulating the general spatial and seasonal variability of Alpine snow cover, but generally underestimate snow at elevations below 1,000 m and overestimate snow above 1,500 m. Model biases in snow cover can partly be related to biases in the atmospheric forcing. The analysis of climate projections for the twenty first century reveals high inter-model agreement on the following points: The strongest relative reduction in winter mean SWE is found below 1,500 m, amounting to 40–80 % by mid century relative to 1971–2000 and depending upon the model considered. At these elevations, mean winter temperatures are close to the melting point. At higher elevations the decrease of mean winter SWE is less pronounced but still a robust feature. For instance, at elevations of 2,000–2,500 m, SWE reductions amount to 10–60 % by mid century and to 30–80 % by the end of the century. The duration of the continuous snow cover season shows an asymmetric reduction with strongest shortening in springtime when ablation is the dominant factor for changes in SWE. We also find a substantial ensemble-mean reduction of snow reliability relevant to winter tourism at elevations below about 1,800 m by mid century, and at elevations below about 2,000 m by the end of the century.  相似文献   

Mapping global land system archetypes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Tomáš Václavík  Sven Lautenbach  Tobias Kuemmerle  Ralf Seppelt 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1637-1647

Land use is a key driver of global environmental change. Unless major shifts in consumptive behaviours occur, land-based production will have to increase drastically to meet future demands for food and other commodities. One approach to better understand the drivers and impacts of agricultural intensification is the identification of global, archetypical patterns of land systems. Current approaches focus on broad-scale representations of dominant land cover with limited consideration of land-use intensity. In this study, we derived a new global representation of land systems based on more than 30 high-resolution datasets on land-use intensity, environmental conditions and socioeconomic indicators. Using a self-organizing map algorithm, we identified and mapped twelve archetypes of land systems for the year 2005. Our analysis reveals similarities in land systems across the globe but the diverse pattern at sub-national scales implies that there are no ‘one-size-fits-all’ solutions to sustainable land management. Our results help to identify generic patterns of land pressures and environmental threats and provide means to target regionalized strategies to cope with the challenges of global change. Mapping global archetypes of land systems represents a first step towards better understanding the global patterns of human–environment interactions and the environmental and social outcomes of land system dynamics.  相似文献   

Does the Fornax dwarf spheroidal have a central cusp or core?     

Tobias Goerdt  Ben Moore  J. I. Read  Joachim Stadel  Marcel Zemp 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,368(3):1073-1077

The dark matter dominated Fornax dwarf spheroidal has five globular clusters orbiting at ∼1 kpc from its centre. In a cuspy cold dark matter halo the globulars would sink to the centre from their current positions within a few Gyr, presenting a puzzle as to why they survive undigested at the present epoch. We show that a solution to this timing problem is to adopt a cored dark matter halo. We use numerical simulations and analytic calculations to show that, under these conditions, the sinking time becomes many Hubble times; the globulars effectively stall at the dark matter core radius. We conclude that the Fornax dwarf spheroidal has a shallow inner density profile with a core radius constrained by the observed positions of its globular clusters. If the phase space density of the core is primordial then it implies a warm dark matter particle and gives an upper limit to its mass of ∼0.5 keV, consistent with that required to significantly alleviate the substructure problem.  相似文献   

Attaining m s<Superscript>−1</Superscript> level intrinsic Doppler precision with RHEA,a low-cost single-mode spectrograph     

Tobias Feger  Michael J. Ireland  Christian Schwab  Joao Bento  Carlos Bacigalupo  David W. Coutts 《Experimental Astronomy》2016,42(3):285-300

We present RHEA, a compact and inexpensive single-mode spectrograph which is built to exploit the capabilities of modest-sized telescopes in an economic way. The instrument is fed by up to seven optical waveguides with the aim of achieving an efficient and modal-noise-free unit, suitable for attaining extreme Doppler precision. The cross-dispersed layout features a wavelength coverage from 430–650 nm, with spectral resolution of R ～75,000. When coupled to small telescopes using fast tip/tilt control, our instrument is well-suited to sensitive spectroscopy. Example science cases are accurate radial velocity studies of low to intermediate-mass giant stars with the purpose of searching for giant plants and using asteroseismology to simultaneously measure the host star parameters. In this paper we describe the final instrument design and present first results from testing the internal stability.  相似文献   

Simulations of VLBI observations of a geodetic satellite providing co-location in space     

James M. Anderson  Georg Beyerle  Susanne Glaser  Li Liu  Benjamin Männel  Tobias Nilsson  Robert Heinkelmann  Harald Schuh 《Journal of Geodesy》2018,92(9):1023-1046

We performed Monte Carlo simulations of very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations of Earth-orbiting satellites incorporating co-located space-geodetic instruments in order to study how well the VLBI frame and the spacecraft frame can be tied using such measurements. We simulated observations of spacecraft by VLBI observations, time-of-flight (TOF) measurements using a time-encoded signal in the spacecraft transmission, similar in concept to precise point positioning, and differential VLBI (D-VLBI) observations using angularly nearby quasar calibrators to compare their relative performance. We used the proposed European Geodetic Reference Antenna in Space (E-GRASP) mission as an initial test case for our software. We found that the standard VLBI technique is limited, in part, by the present lack of knowledge of the absolute offset of VLBI time to Coordinated Universal Time at the level of microseconds. TOF measurements are better able to overcome this problem and provide frame ties with uncertainties in translation and scale nearly a factor of three smaller than those yielded from VLBI measurements. If the absolute time offset issue can be resolved by external means, the VLBI results can be significantly improved and can come close to providing 1 mm accuracy in the frame tie parameters. D-VLBI observations with optimum performance assumptions provide roughly a factor of two higher uncertainties for the E-GRASP orbit. We additionally simulated how station and spacecraft position offsets affect the frame tie performance.  相似文献   

Using isotopes to understand landscape-scale connectivity in a groundwater-dominated,lowland catchment under drought conditions     

Lukas Kleine  Doerthe Tetzlaff  Aaron Smith  Tobias Goldhammer  Chris Soulsby 《水文研究》2021,35(5):e14197

The Demnitzer Millcreek catchment (DMC), is a 66 km² long-term experimental catchment located 50 km SE of Berlin. Monitoring over the past 30 years has focused on hydrological and biogeochemical changes associated with de-intensification of farming and riparian restoration in the low-lying landscape dominated by rain-fed farming and forestry. However, the hydrological function of the catchment, which is closely linked to nutrient fluxes and highly sensitive to climatic variability, is still poorly understood. In the last 3 years, a prolonged drought period with below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures has resulted in marked hydrological change. This caused low soil moisture storage in the growing season, agricultural yield losses, reduced groundwater recharge, and intermittent streamflows in parts of an increasingly disconnected channel network. This paper focuses on a two-year long isotope study that sought to understand how different parts of the catchment affect ecohydrological partitioning, hydrological connectivity and streamflow generation during drought conditions. The work has shown the critical importance of groundwater storage in sustaining flows, basic in-stream ecosystem services and the dominant influence of vegetation on groundwater recharge. Recharge was much lower and occurred during a shorter window of time in winter under forests compared to grasslands. Conversely, groundwater recharge was locally enhanced by the restoration of riparian wetlands and storage-dependent water losses from the stream to the subsurface. The isotopic variability displayed complex emerging spatio-temporal patterns of stream connectivity and flow duration during droughts that may have implications for in-stream solute transport and future ecohydrological interactions between landscapes and riverscapes. Given climate projections for drier and warmer summers, reduced and increasingly intermittent streamflows are very likely not just in the study region, but in similar lowland areas across Europe. An integrated land and water management strategy will be essential to sustaining catchment ecosystem services in such catchment systems in future.  相似文献   

Conditioning of Multiple-Point Statistics Facies Simulations to Tomographic Images   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Tobias Lochbühler  Guillaume Pirot  Julien Straubhaar  Niklas Linde 《Mathematical Geosciences》2014,46(5):625-645

Geophysical tomography captures the spatial distribution of the underlying geophysical property at a relatively high resolution, but the tomographic images tend to be blurred representations of reality and generally fail to reproduce sharp interfaces. Such models may cause significant bias when taken as a basis for predictive flow and transport modeling and are unsuitable for uncertainty assessment. We present a methodology in which tomograms are used to condition multiple-point statistics (MPS) simulations. A large set of geologically reasonable facies realizations and their corresponding synthetically calculated cross-hole radar tomograms are used as a training image. The training image is scanned with a direct sampling algorithm for patterns in the conditioning tomogram, while accounting for the spatially varying resolution of the tomograms. In a post-processing step, only those conditional simulations that predicted the radar traveltimes within the expected data error levels are accepted. The methodology is demonstrated on a two-facies example featuring channels and an aquifer analog of alluvial sedimentary structures with five facies. For both cases, MPS simulations exhibit the sharp interfaces and the geological patterns found in the training image. Compared to unconditioned MPS simulations, the uncertainty in transport predictions is markedly decreased for simulations conditioned to tomograms. As an improvement to other approaches relying on classical smoothness-constrained geophysical tomography, the proposed method allows for: (1) reproduction of sharp interfaces, (2) incorporation of realistic geological constraints and (3) generation of multiple realizations that enables uncertainty assessment.  相似文献   

Civil society lobbying and countries’ climate change policies: a matching approach     

Tobias Böhmelt 《Climate Policy》2013,13(6):698-717

Does civil society lobbying affect states’ policies on climate change? Does it facilitate or hamper cooperation towards ‘greener’ policies? Environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs) and business lobbying groups alike are increasingly seeking to access states’ negotiation delegations at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in order to affect or even change official delegates’ policies. Previous studies have failed to control for the fact that the set of states that have granted civil society access to their delegations is unlikely to be a random sample. Moreover, the fact that a delegation's policy outputs may converge with the preferences of a civil society group cannot be taken as evidence that it was caused by civil society lobbying. A matching approach that addresses both problems is proposed, which corrects for the non-random assignment of civil society organizations to state delegations and forms quasi-experimental contrasts by sampling a set of ‘most similar’ cases that only differ in their treatment; i.e. civil society lobbying. This approach facilitates a causal interpretation of lobbying efforts. The results indicate that only business groups are likely to exert a causal influence on states’ climate delegations. However, contrary to expectations, these groups appear to have enhanced states’ efforts towards environmentally friendly policies.

Policy relevance

What impact can non-governmental actors have in influencing states’ policies at the climate change negotiations? This question is addressed empirically using a matching approach, which corrects potential challenges in the research on interest group influence. It is shown that business groups are likely to influence states’ policies at the UNFCCC – unlike green interest groups or civil society in general. In light of these findings, three policy implications are derived that might be of importance for states and non-governmental decision makers alike. Most importantly, ENGOs should refocus their efforts for exerting their influence. ENGOs could make their lobbying more effective by first identifying the states that may be more receptive to their preferences and positions.  相似文献   

Fault-controlled sedimentation in a progressively opening extensional basin: the Palaeoproterozoic Vargfors basin, Skellefte mining district, Sweden     

Tobias E. Bauer  Pietari Skyttä  Rodney L. Allen  Pär Weihed 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,102(2):385-400

The Vargfors basin in the central part of the Skellefte mining district is an inverted sedimentary basin within a Palaeoproterozoic (1.89 Ga) marine volcanic arc. The fault-segmented basin formed from upper-crustal extension and subsequent compression, following a period of intense sub-marine volcanism and VMS ore formation. New detailed mapping reveals variations in stratigraphy attributed to syn-extensional sedimentation, as well as provenance of conglomerate clasts associated with tectonic activity at the transition from extension to compression. The onset of fan delta to alluvial fan sedimentation associated with basin subsidence indicates that significant dip-slip displacement accommodating rapid uplift of the intrusive complex and/or subsidence of the adjacent volcano-sedimentary domain took place along a major fault zone at the southern margin of the intrusive complex. Subsidence of the Jörn intrusive complex and/or its burial by sedimentary units caused a break in erosion of the intrusion and favoured the deposition of a tonalite clast-barren conglomerate. Clast compositions of conglomerates show that the syn-extensional deposits become younger in the south-eastern parts of the basin, indicating that opening of the basin progressed from north-west to south-east. Subsequent basin inversion, associated with the accretion to the Karelian margin, involved reverse activation of the normal faults and development of related upright synclines. Progressive crustal shortening caused the formation of break-back faults accompanied by mafic volcanic activity that particularly affected the southern contact of the Jörn intrusive complex and the northern contact of the Vargfors basin.  相似文献